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Global, domestic impediments will slow economy, but no recession yet

According to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, a number of economic impediments — including the Russia–Ukraine war, COVID-19 lockdowns in China, supply chain constraints and inflation — continue to affect the U.S. and California economies. And while there is no recession forecast in the June report, economic slowdowns nationally and statewide are expected.

The national forecast

Given growing concern about the possibility of a recession caused by rising interest rates and a slowdown in housing, Professor Edward Leamer, in an article titled “A New Way of Forecasting a Recession: Not Much to Worry About Right Now,” conducts a statistical analysis of past recessions. He concludes that a recession in the next 12 months is unlikely.

However, according to UCLA Anderson Forecast Senior Economist Leo Feler, author of the national forecast, there is no doubt that parts of the U.S. economy are abruptly slowing, as waves of…

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