Omega Management logo

India’s Economy Is Stuck Just Short of Escape Velocity

India’s official statisticians reported 13.5% growth in the April to June quarter of this year. This meant that the country whooshed into top place as the world’s fastest-growing large economy — and, incidentally, replaced Great Britain as the world’s fifth-biggest economy.

Unfortunately, that’s where the good news about India’s growth prospects ends. Those GDP numbers were actually a disappointment, given that the same quarter last year saw India shut down amid its devastating Delta-driven Covid wave; a Bloomberg survey of economists expected growth in excess of 15%.

Over the past three years, in fact, GDP in India has grown just over 3% — and less than 4% since the last quarter before the pandemic. This financial year — which will end in March 2023 — is unlikely to break any records: Most now expect that real growth will not reach 7% even off a low base.

If you look for reasons to be optimistic, you can find them….

Read more…