Any investor has heard that past performance is not an indicator of future results. But when it comes to an expected looming recession, many people are looking to previous ones for a guideline of what to expect.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a strategist at JPMorgan, is the latest to chime in, noting that the pattern the stock market has been in lately is very reminiscent of what was seen in the days leading up the 1969 recession. Fortunately, for consumers, that one proved to be fairly mild.
“Using the 1969 U.S. recession as a guide, the picture we get is of continued equity market declines up to six months after the start of the recession, but a quick recovery after then,” says Panigirtzoglou.
The stock market is one of the keys to the comparison. In ‘69, the S&P 500 saw a total decline of 34%, bouncing back to a 20% drop from its peak when the recession finally started. The current index is down a little more than…
