Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop says that a domestic recession is not expected in South Africa this year; however, increased load shedding could be a tipping point.
Bishop noted this week that multiple analysts have taken the stance that there is a lower chance of a recession in South Africa in light of relatively stable growth predictions.
“A week ago, Bloomberg released the economic consensus expectation for South Africa’s GDP growth this year, at 1.2% year-on-year, with Reuters showing the same estimate, and FocusEconomics 1.3% year-on-year,” said Bishop.
The economist said that the latest January consensus from Bloomberg also shows no recession in South Africa this year, but rather weak economic growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, for the first three quarters of 2023, and 0.4% quarter-on-quarter for the final quarter of 2023.
According to Bishop, Investec forecasts GDP growth at the start of January, at 1.1% y/y…
