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Uncertainty Creeps into Fed Rate Outlook but Too Early to Count U.S. Dollar Out


“This means that one-way traffic in FX, with the dollar staying on a downtrend for longer, still appears unlikely,” ING Group 


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Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers were far from uninanimous in their views on how much further interest rates may need to rise in November and recent data has done little to suggest that would have changed since this month’s meeting, though analysts at ING say it’s too early to count the U.S. Dollar out.

Chairman Jerome Powell was speaking for himself and “various” others on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) when saying in November’s press conference that earlier U.S. economic data had argued in favour of a higher peak in interest rates than was suggested in September’s forecasts.

This is not quite the “many,” the “most” or the “majority” of participants that would be required for a consensus in favour of aiming higher than the 4.75% level that was suggested in September…

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