With turmoil in the markets, high inflation and impending interest rate hikes that will make borrowing money more expensive, many Americans are wondering if the economy is heading toward a recession.
Goldman Sachs chairman Lloyd Blankfein said last weekend that “it’s certainly a very, very high risk factor,” and consumers should be “prepared for it.” However, he hedged his comments by saying the Federal Reserve “has very powerful tools” and a recession is “not baked in the cake.”
Although it is impossible to know for sure, the odds of a U.S. recession in the next year have been steadily rising, according to a recent Bloomberg survey of 37 economists. They have the probability pegged at 30%, which is double the odds from three months ago.
To put that number into context, the threat of a recession is typically about 15% in a given year, due to unexpected events and numerous variables.
The bottom line: “The likelihood of recession this…
