Investor concerns that the US economy is overheating are giving way to recession jitters as analysts fret the Federal Reserve could stifle growth with its rapid tightening of monetary policy.
Markets are pricing in an aggressive path for Fed rate rises in the coming months while also signalling expectations that the central bank will then change course next year and begin cutting rates.
“We have seen the consumer getting squeezed by the higher cost of living and by monetary policy, which could lead to a consumer-led recession,” said Erin Browne, portfolio manager at Pimco.
Economic reports released over the past two weeks have heightened the sense of uncertainty. Key surveys on the US services and manufacturing sectors from the Institute for Supply Management showed corporate America is cutting back on hiring. Weekly figures on unemployment claims have also pointed to slowing momentum. However, the monthly employment…