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Headline Data Say The Economy Is Solid Markets Know Better

Housing Affordability & Mortgage Payments as a Percentage of Income


Market reaction and direction was always going to be about the employment numbers. At first glance, the +315K from the BLS’ Payroll Survey looked “solid,” and equities rose more than 1% in Friday’s early going. But, as further analysis occurred, markets ended the day significantly in negative territory. Apparently, the details below the headline were less than “solid.”

Here are some of those details:

  • The prior two months totals were reduced by -107K.
  • BLS “adds” a number every month to the Payroll Survey for “small businesses” because the survey only captures large businesses. In August, that automatic “add” was about 90K. So, they really didn’t count +315K, it was more like +225K. In the ADP survey on Wednesday, the reported number for small business was -47K. (ADP uses its payroll processing business for such data.) ADP…

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